Ajay Chhibber

In roughly 50 high-risk countries around the world - of which almost half are in Asia and the Pacific - disasters occur with such regularity that the country's development strategy must be aimed at building up resilience to disasters, not merely tacking it on as an afterthought to other plans. For these countries, it is question of when, not if, the next disaster will strike.

In 2005, 42% of the severe natural hazards recorded globally occurred in Asia, killing 97,000 people, or 90% of the total of lives lost worldwide. More than 150 million people were adversely affected. Powerful disasters struck again in 2008 as a major cyclone in Burma devastated the Irrawaddy Delta. Then in 2009, tsunamis struck Samoa and Tonga, cyclones and heavy rain ravaged northern parts of the Philippines and areas of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, and a massive earthquake hit Sumatra, a region that had been devastated only a few years earlier by a tsunami in 2004. Even tiny Bhutan was struck twice in one year with a flood and an earthquake, just as unexpected heavy rain hit southern India.

A vicious cycle

The most recent natural disasters came on top of a global economic crisis when the ability of many countries to respond had already been weakened considerably, acting as yet another reminder of the concentration of disaster risk in Asia-Pacific. The frequency, severity and cyclical nature of hazard events means some countries in the region are caught in a perpetual cycle of disaster and recovery. They have to respond to the impact of new disasters while recovering from previous ones. For example, economic losses in a series of disasters including forest fires in 1983 and a series of tropical storms between 1989 and 1990 appear to have set Samoa's development back by about 30 years. It wasn't until 2000 that the island's capital stock recovered to its 1970's level. Samoa has been devastated once again in recent months by a huge tsunami from which it could take years to rebound.

The costs - in terms of human life, capital and economic losses - from disasters, both large and small, are huge. There is no question that the frequency and impact of such events are on the rise. In fact, the number of recorded natural disasters has increased from 50 a year in the early 1970s to almost 400 a year today. For some countries, the price tag exceeds both the aid budget and the investment allowance and can wipe out more than half of its gross domestic product, as was the case in the Maldives following the 2004 tsunami. Given the magnitude of many present-day crises, preparation and response requires a new way of looking at disaster resilience. Getting ready for the next onslaught must be part of all development planning, even when there appears to be no imminent danger. In fact, the very nature of development itself will need to change.

Preparing for the worst

A natural disaster is shorthand for a humanitarian crisis with a natural trigger. Some experts would go as far as to say that a natural disaster is a failure of human development. Such events are often the result of a population made vulnerable by lack of preparation or flawed development. A natural event or hazard, such as an earthquake or cyclone, can become a disaster when coupled with poor development. For example, while deforestation or unplanned coastal or flood-plain development can increase a country's income in the short term, there will be a greater risk when the next hazard strikes. Such a chain of events can negate development gains and even permanently damage long-term development.

Cities are seen as the engines of economic growth and make a significant contribution to a country's GDP. They act as magnets in that they provide job opportunities to millions of unskilled and semi-skilled people who settle in makeshift shelters on their peripheries. As a result, major cities often bear the brunt during times of disaster. Poor land-use planning has completely failed to provide the benefits of development to the citizens of many Asian countries, and losses from natural disasters are expected to rise due to a significant lack of investment in infrastructure with adequate considerations for disaster risks.

As countries amass more income and physical assets, the risk of economic loss is increasing faster than the risk of mortality. Assuming a constant hazard, it is estimated that the global mortality risk from flooding increased by 13% between 1990 and 2007. Meanwhile, the economic risk increased by a third. In Asia, losses due to natural disasters are estimated at $39.5bn per year. The 2009 UN Global Assessment Report concluded: "Mortality and economic loss risk are heavily concentrated in developing countries and within these countries, they disproportionately affect the poor. Natural disasters on average kill more women than men, for example; during the 2004 tsunami, deaths among women [were] three times more than men. Disasters also kill women at an earlier age than men, particularly in areas where women are of low socio-economic status."

In Asia-Pacific, the cost of disaster is between five to seven times higher than that of countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), indicating a much higher vulnerability of economic infrastructure. In Bangladesh, Vietnam and the northern Philippines, which are all repeatedly hit by natural calamities, long-term growth rates have been estimated to decline by as much as 1% to 2% a year.

A long-term view

A key part of building resilience is in helping countries to prepare, respond and recover from disasters before they occur. The returns on investments in disaster preparation is estimated to be as much as 12 times the cost of the preparation. However, in most developing countries convincing governments to build resilience before a disaster is not easy given the myriad development challenges already confronting them.

They are therefore responding to each disaster but are not systematically building up resilience to avoid wiping out development gains. It is simply not enough to build the capacity to respond to disasters. Countries must invest in risk-reducing development by introducing good building and design codes and retrofitting existing buildings, especially schools and other vital infrastructure, to withstand disasters. Roads, schools and community centres must be built to withstand natural hazards. Community education and clear emergency systems with well-delineated roles and responsibilities triggered by early warning systems are needed.

Some progress is being made in countries such as Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh following recent crises. China and India also have very different but by now well-developed response and disaster management systems. In China's case, the systems are built around types of disasters, with a different agency for earthquakes and another one for floods and cyclones. In India, Indonesia and Sri Lanka a national disaster management agency guides the response to all disasters. Disaster risk mitigation must be the central feature of their development. However, throughout most of Asia, dedicated institutions for disaster risk mitigation have only recently started. For example, the 2004 tsunami disaster led to the establishment of new legislative and institutional systems in Sri Lanka, Indonesia and the Maldives.

Financing for disaster management is a major issue. A typical disaster is followed by a humanitarian appeal and chaotic fundraising campaigns. But better national and regional funding mechanisms are needed. A global fund has been established but remains small. Asia lacks a regional disaster facility of the kind established in Latin America. New and innovative funding schemes that bring in private mechanisms are also needed. Disaster risk insurance is currently being tried in several countries such as India and Vietnam. Parametric insurance schemes can be used to provide more automatic and stable funding when hazards strike. Insurance for infrastructure also helps increase the pressure on better quality construction standards which are notoriously weak in many developing countries, despite adequate codes and laws on the books. The Asia-Pacific region should also consider establishing a common disaster facility to pool funding for responding to disasters; which surprisingly has not been done so far.

Most disasters have a hydrological base, and cyclones, typhoons, wind storms, floods and droughts will increase with global warming. The Himalayan ice-melt will have an unpredictable effect on the lives of more than 1 billion people dependent on Asia's great river systems. Climate change-related migration will also increase the risk of conflict. There are signs of this already in some of the Pacific Islands. New research even asserts that metrological disasters (earthquakes) will increase as the forces generated by climate change will have tectonic impact. Once again, Asia will be highly vulnerable given its frequent earthquake activity.

Knowing that the long-term impact of disasters on poverty and human development will be magnified by climate change, we need to invest in risk-reducing development, support the growth of insurance markets in lower-income countries and improve early-warning systems to protect society's poorest and most vulnerable. Natural hazards are inevitable and on the rise, but disasters can be managed so that Asia's development efforts are not thwarted.

Ajay Chhibber is assistant secretary-general of the United Nations and regional director of the UN Development Programme for Asia and the Pacific