In choosing their next leader, Indians are essentially having to choose between economic and political stability, with neither of the two major candidates likely to satisfy on both scores.
Indians are electing a new government in a voting process that takes six weeks, with results due on May 16, 2014. We have all been brought up on the remarkable achievement of India being the world’s largest democracy, albeit amid conditions of continuing poverty and wide inequalities. The fact remains, however, that the 814 million voters – 100 million more than in the 2009 elections – are not overwhelmed with scintillating candidates to vote for, a problem India shares with many other democracies around the world. (Contrast this with China where a one-party state has a track record, in recent times, of delivering strong and effective leaders.)
Not that India has completely stood still, its growth rates have reached double figures at times over the past 10 years. The World Bank reports that since independence, life expectancy has doubled, literacy rates quadrupled, a middle class has emerged and the country is home to globally recognised pharmaceutical and steel companies. On the other hand, with a per capita income of $1410 in 2011, it remains one of the poorest of middle-income countries and the laggard among the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China. India’s poorest states fare very badly with a per capita of $436 in Uttar Pradesh (which is home to more people than Brazil) and $294 in Bihar.
On Indian television chat shows there are constant discussions (this being a democracy) as to how a country that can send a robotic probe to Mars (launched last November) can also fail to provide more than a quarter of its 1.2 billion population with clean water in their homes and more than half the population with proper sanitation. Who can address these issues as well as widespread concerns about corruption, unemployment, growth rates of only 5%, rising inflation and women’s safety? Neither of the two main contenders are hugely inspiring.
Voters can pick another Ghandi if they wish. Rahul Ghandi, 43, is the son of murdered former prime minister Rajiv Ghandi, and part of the political dynasty that has dominated Indian politics since independence in 1947. The terrible burden this has placed on the family is well known, and Mr Ghandi occasionally gives the impression that running for office is an obligation rather than his life’s ambition. He is the Congress Party candidate, but voters will be mindful that the incumbent Congress Party-led coalition government of outgoing prime minister Manmohan Singh has failed to deliver on reforms and has been marred by corruption scandals.
The other major contender is Narendra Modi of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party. Mr Modi’s economic track record is good. As chief minister of Gujarat since 2001 he has made the state economically vibrant and a first choice of investors. The hope would be that he could kick some life into India’s slowing economy. But Mr Modi’s image as an unapologetic Hindu nationalist makes him unacceptable to Muslim voters and he is widely criticised for not taking a stand when 1000 people were killed in a Hindu attack on Muslims in Gujarat in 2002. By contrast, the Congress Party has always prided itself on its inclusiveness.
Whichever party triumphs it will almost certainly be obliged to rule in coalition with smaller parties. The wildcard in the election is anti-corruption campaigner Arvind Kejriwal, whose Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) or the 'common man's party' has achieved electoral success in Delhi.
A former civil servant he has set himself against India’s culture of bribe taking, but his stint as Delhi’s chief minister was short lived. He resigned after 49 days in office in protest at not being able to table anti-corruption laws in the state assembly without the say-so of central government. Some have applauded his stance, others suggest it demonstrates an inability to really get results. In any case, going from Delhi to capturing the entire country is a big ask – no one is predicting an upset on that scale.
This means that either Rahul Ghandi or Narendra Modi will take office in May, the first carrying economic risk, the second political risk. Surely with 1.2 billion people India can find someone who can cover both angles effectively?
Brian Caplen is the editor of The Banker.
