Nigeria's election calm: good news for Africa?

The omens for Nigeria’s presidential election on March 28 were not good. Originally scheduled for mid-February, the election was postponed by six weeks due to a lack of voter registration cards, and to give the Nigerian armed forces time to push back the territorial ambitions of Boko Haram, an Islamist terror group operating in the north of the country. Nigeria’s economy was under severe strain after the oil price collapse at the end of 2014, and rival political factions clashed violently.

What followed surprised many. Challenger Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress defeated incumbent Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party by a clear 3 million votes, and enjoyed a smooth transition into power. Mr Jonathan rejected the path taken by many African leaders before him and conceded quickly and conclusively, extinguishing fears of a violent aftermath to the election. Allegations of small-scale electoral fraud emerged, but overall the vote was deemed to be fair.

The question now is whether Mr Buhari, a former military ruler of the country, can govern effectively and democratically. Many of the problems facing Nigeria in the run-up to the election have not gone away. Boko Haram is still a localised threat, and the country's economy needs to be diversified to offset the impact of the fluctuating oil price. Nigeria’s banks are in good shape, offering investors an average return on capital of about 25%. Many Nigerians still lack bank accounts, meaning the financial sector has huge potential for growth.

Nigeria’s future is important for the rest of Africa. As the continent’s most populous country, and its largest economy, Nigeria is a trend-setter for many nations in the region. Too often, African elections have resulted in messy civil wars, as in Cote d’Ivoire at the beginning of this decade. Good governance is slowly gaining a foothold in Africa, and a stable Nigerian democracy should give it a further boost.