The UK is in the honeymoon period of a new government - a novel coalition of right-of-centre Conservatives and left-of-centre Liberal Democrats. This is sure to end as the government sets about taking the tough tax and spending decisions required to bring the UK's budget numbers back into shape and avert a Greek-style crisis.
The worry is that, as the coalition members try to decide which departments take the hit, they will jointly vent their fury on the financial sector as a convenient scapegoat.
Bankers have reason to feel particularly uneasy about the new political arrangements, as it is clear that radical restructuring may be on the cards. The Liberal Democrats' shadow chancellor Vince Cable - now the business secretary - was one of the harshest critics of the City in the run-up to the election. He is an advocate of breaking up the banks and once described investment bankers as 'Scargills in pinstripes', a reference to the former union leader of the UK miners who held the country to ransom in the 1970s through crippling industrial action.
Fortunately, in the new administration, Mr Cable does not have direct responsibility for the banks. A new cabinet committee on banking will be chaired by Conservative chancellor George Osborne and, critically, an independent commission to look at separating retail from investment banking will report to him, not Mr Cable.
Change ahead
All the same, the section of the coalition agreement on banking talks about the introduction of a banking levy, robust action on tackling unacceptable bonuses and reform of the regulatory system - although the Financial Services Authority, originally targeted for closure by the Conservatives, may now get a reprieve.
The big fear of course is that the government will act unilaterally and put London at a competitive disadvantage. But at least nothing seems to be going ahead without study and consultation, which gives bankers the chance to make their case. Banks and bankers who get themselves into the headlines for the wrong reasons over the next 12 months - with insider trading and excessive bonuses - risk damaging not only themselves, but the entire industry. Now is a time for some very grown-up thinking in finance.
