Poland’s outgoing central bank chief Marek Belka tells Stefanie Linhardt that maintaining banking stability will be the major issue for his replacement. 

Marek Belka embedded

Marek Belka, the outgoing president of the National Bank of Poland and a professor of economics, is one of the highest regarded financial experts in Poland. During his six-year tenure leading the bank, he also held numerous positions in the international community, including four years as chair of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund Development Committee. He is also a former prime minister, deputy prime minister and finance minister of Poland.

At 2016’s meeting of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Mr Belka challenged the incumbent, Sir Suma Chakrabarti, in the elections for the presidency of the EBRD, which Mr Chakrabarti won convincingly.

The Banker’s Europe editor, Stefanie Linhardt, caught up with Mr Belka at the EBRD meeting to hear his views on Poland, his successor at the central bank, the country’s banking sector and the economy going forward.

Q: You have been president of the National Bank of Poland for six years and your term is ending in June. Adam Glapiński is the new candidate for the post. What are your views on the incoming president?

A: He has served as a member of the Monetary Policy Council for the past six years and has been sitting on the board of the bank for some months, so he is very well acquainted with the bank and with the challenges for monetary policy. He is a well-known economist and lecturer, and I think he is very well prepared to serve as president of the central bank. 

Q: Are we going to see a continuation of your policies?

A: I hope so, and that would be my recommendation for him, both as far as monetary policy is concerned but also in terms of internal governance of the bank. And with this relatively new mandate of the bank – the macro-prudential supervision, which the central bank governor is now the head of – banking sector stability is one of the main challenges. So if I were to give him some advice for his upcoming journey, [I would say] be very cautious about the banking sector. 

Q: What is your assessment of the current health of the Polish banking sector in that case?

A: Great – but I would say there are some measures already introduced, such as the banking tax, that have vastly reduced the prospects for profitability of the banking sector, and there is a looming problem of foreign exchange mortgage loans, which if tackled in a whimsical way could undermine the stability of the banking sector. This is one of his biggest challenges for the coming years. 

Q: The Polish economy grew 3.6% in 2015 and is widely expected to grow at a similar level this year. What are your expectations in that respect?

A: My outlook does not differ from most forecasters; I think this year we will even see a slight acceleration in the growth rate. What is much more important, however, is not the number itself but the internal structure of growth. This is a growth-based and well-balanced growth: basically Poland is free of any major [imbalance]. So I think the economy can grow for years to come provided there are no external shocks, which could come either from the global economy or from some adventurous internal policies.

 

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