Most predictions about the world are based on the increasingly powerful role of China and its booming economy. The trouble is that China is not booming in anything like the style that its official statistics would suggest. Leading US academic Lester Thurow, in a startling article written for The Banker’s Viewpoint, looks more closely at Chinese data and finds it wanting. A debate is now required on what this means for the global economy.
Maybe a lesser role for China can be offset by a resurgent Japan. In our cover story, Geraldine Lambe looks at the progress being made by the banks in finally coming to terms with a new economic reality.
All banks are coming to terms with rapid change, either in the marketplace or on the regulatory front and our Banks of the Future listing, starting on page 80, will help identify those adapting best. The listing gives, by Tier 1 capital, banks ranked from 1001 to 2000 in The Banker’s database.
Also from the database, we present the Top 100 Latin American banks, which sees Brazil’s Banco Bradesco moving from third to first place. Elsewhere in the Americas, we look at the impact of elections on bank mergers in Canada and the continuing struggle of holders of defaulted Argentine bonds to recover their money. In Team of the Month, we profile the refinancing work Barclays Capital’s carried out with Mexican petrochemicals company Petrotemex.
In eastern Europe, Zdenek Tuma, governor of the Czech central bank, tells Karina Robinson about his dislike for joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism II as a prelude to adopting the euro. In western Europe, we profile Luxembourg as a financial centre.
This month’s Agenda features an interview with Jean-Pierre Mustier, CEO of SG Corporate and Investment Banking. The Capital Markets section also looks at the likely impact of rising interest rates and oil prices on emerging market credits and the development of derivatives in China. In FX & Treasury, we consider the automation of FX trading systems and in Global Securities Services, we study current thinking on corporate actions.
This month’s Retail Strategy interview is with Alain Law Min, head of retail at Mauritius Commercial Bank, and Tech Vision records Till Guldimann’s views on technology trends.
Finally, special reports in this issue come from Brunei and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
