With the Conservatives springing a surprise victory in the UK general election, eyes turn towards the coming EU in-out referendum in 2017, as well as renewed calls for Scottish independence.

With the UK’s ruling Conservative Party scraping to an overall majority in the general election, the scenario again has been raised of the UK leaving the EU and of Scotland leaving the UK.

Banks and businesses have expressed concern about such changes, both in terms of the short-term disruption they would bring as well as the long-term consequences of declining market access and influence.

They can put their minds at rest. The message of the 2015 UK election, and last year’s referendum on Scottish independence, is that the British people, including the Scots, are conservative with a small 'c' even if they tell the opinion polls something different.

On this basis, we can expect the UK to vote for staying inside the EU in a promised referendum in 2017 and, given that outcome, for Scotland to remain inside the UK.

It would indeed have been an historic departure if an incumbent government with an improving economy had failed to win re-election – and even more especially against an opposition Labour leader in Ed Miliband, who was considered by many to be weak.

There were, however, good reasons to think that it would not happen because there is another long-run historical trend working in the opposite direction – and that is that the Conservative Party is associated with a white, middle-class shire-dwelling constituency that is out of kilter with an increasingly urbanised and multicultural country. This is why the opinion polls got it wrong, because many voters like to be identified with the latter and not the former.

But deep down, the British are fearful of change and only tend to vote for it in dire circumstances. They understood that the country is still in a hole and that manifestos by parties without a grasp of basic arithmetic are liable to lead to further troubles.  

In fact, the Conservatives' manifesto arithmetic was also seriously awry, but they were able to burnish the credentials of having managed in government through one of the trickiest times in post-war history. They will, however, have to rebrand if they want to survive in more prosperous times.

Meanwhile, the brand of the Scottish National Party is super cool but also based on a canny calculation. As long as Scotland remains within the UK while threatening to leave, Scotland gets a better deal on public resources and, best of all, the SNP gains credit for this without bearing the responsibility of independent government. The danger is not that the Scots will give this up, but that citizens in the rest of the UK will grow tired of funding it.

So for now the status quo has been maintained and investors in the UK can safely assume that Brexit is a long shot. What they should be more fearful about is the failure of the EU to reform itself and get to grips with the eurozone crisis.

Brian Caplen is the editor of The Banker.

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