Two-and-a-half years after the onset of the Arab Spring, the Middle East and north Africa (Mena) region continues to face a slow transition to democracy, with the political situation in Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Tunisia remaining precarious, reinforcing economic vulnerabilities, while the ongoing war in Syria is exacerbating weaknesses in its neighbours, Jordan and Lebanon.
While transition is always difficult, the slow progress and interlinked political and economic vulnerabilities cast a pall over the near-term outlook of the region’s oil importers, amplifying problems already caused by weakened eurozone demand and other stresses. Support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and Mena citizens abroad have helped countries such as Egypt and Tunisia muddle through, but the deterioration in the political and security infrastructure, and the weakening of institutions, suggest growth and investment lag behind.
