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AfricaJuly 6 2009

Nigerian banks solid, but storm clouds gather

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African banks have so far been relatively insulated from the wider financial crisis, and results for calendar year 2008 reflect this. However, with plummeting commodities prices and a dearth of foreign external financing so far in 2009, next year's results might not look so rosy.

Of the top 21 sub-Saharan African banks that made it into The Banker's Top 1000 rankings, five were South African, 13 were Nigerian, two were Mauritian and one, EcoBank, was from Togo. Nigeria's banks continued to amass Tier 1 capital in calendar year 2008, making them even stronger than last year, when compared with the traditionally dominant South African Banks. Whereas last year Nigeria's banks made up 34% of total Tier 1 capital from the sub-Saharan banks, this year they made up 43.4%. South Africa's share of total Tier 1 capital fell from 62% in last year's rankings to 52.8%.

A tough year in global banking did not directly affect Africa's bank profits for calendar year 2008. Total pre-tax profits for sub-Saharan Africa grew a healthy 8.9% to $11.4bn, moving up from $10.7bn in calendar year 2007. The Nigerian banking sector as a whole boosted its total pre-tax profits substantially in calendar year 2008, from $1.9bn in 2007 to $3.1bn last year. However, a dark cloud looms over the sector. The Nigerian banks have been hit hard in 2009 by the financial crisis as oil revenues plummet in the country and external finances dry up. A collapse in the Nigerian Stock Exchange in late 2008, which wiped 60% of the value of stocks, left banks reeling and exposed many of them to staggering losses from their margin trading activities. Next year's rankings will undoubtedly reveal a somewhat more sober set of results.

South African bank profits were slightly down on the year before. Total pre-tax profits from South African banks in the Top 1000 fell by about 20% in calendar year 2008 from about $8bn in calendar year 2007 to just over $6bn. In terms of regional rankings, South Africa's banks remain static. In Nigeria, however, the picture is much more fluid. First Bank of Nigeria tops the Nigerian league for Tier 1 capital and is placed fifth in the regional total. Oceanic Bank has slipped from fifth in the sub-Saharan category to seventh. The seemingly unstoppable march of the Nigerian banks up the global rankings appears to have cooled somewhat. Whereas last year Nigerian banks dominated the highest movers category of the Top 1000, this year their performance has been solid rather than spectacular.

Top 20 Sub Saharan Africa ($M)

Top 20 Sub Saharan Africa ($M)

Africa Tier 1 capital: assets %

Africa Tier 1 capital: assets %

Africa pre-tax profits: capital %

Africa pre-tax profits: capital %

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