As Thai bankers packed their bags for the holiday season in December, everyone was braced for a busy start to 2005. After all, there is a general election to look forward to. Thai voters go to the polls on February 6 and incumbent prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is strongly favoured to form the next government.
But the Indian Ocean tsunami that pummelled south Asia on December 26 was a reminder that the business of forecasting is not something at which economists excel. More than 10,000 people in Thailand were injured by the catastrophic waves and thousands of foreign holidaymakers were among the victims. The tragedy has cast a shadow over the country and set a muted tone for this month’s election campaign.
