The UK’s decision to leave the EU has prompted debate over which financial centres could take over parts of London’s business and, indirectly, has encouraged reflection on where to base support services operations more efficiently.
Warsaw appears the largest beneficiary of the exercise. Following June 2016’s Brexit vote, it is estimated that financial services foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Polish capital will eventually generate more than 4000 new jobs, according to greenfield investment monitor fDi Intelligence. Most of these will be support services roles.
JPMorgan’s plans to open a new global operations hub in Warsaw, announced in 2017, account for nearly one-quarter of those new positions. Other big names have moved in the same direction. Goldman Sachs has said it will boost its existing local headcount by 50%, or about 250, while in June 2018 Standard Chartered announced it intends to set up operations in Warsaw and hire 750 people (the emerging market specialist’s project is yet to be added to the fDi Intelligence database.)
More modestly, centres elsewhere in Poland have attracted attention. Santander subsidiary Geoban is investing in a shared services project in the city of Gdynia, on the country’s Baltic coast, generating an estimated 352 new jobs. Meanwhile, as part of their local expansion, Nordea and US insurance sector firm Gabi are investing in Łódź in central Poland, generating a total of 263 new jobs.
Overall, financial services FDI in Poland announced between July 2016 and this April 2018, the latest period for which complete figures are available, generated more than 5000 jobs. Existing service centres in Poland have also been adding 90 jobs a day in the past two years, according to data by the Association of Business Service Leaders and as reported by Bloomberg.
Riding on this wave, Poland is considering postponing a planned payroll tax increase on high earners – which would otherwise come into effect in 2019 and had already been delayed – to encourage further job creation by international investors.
Over the past two years, investment into the country has predominantly come from the US. After the nearly 3400 new jobs potentially being generated out of New York (home to JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs), sizeable projects are also coming out of Dallas and San Francisco.