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WorldJuly 1 2014

China: a drama that may not bring a crisis

Many analysts in the West are predicting the worst for China’s economy, pointing to a slowdown in growth and claiming a meltdown is on its way. However, as Stephen Timewell discovers, the mood within the country is more prosaic, with the feeling being that the economy is simply maturing to a level that will make its growth more sustainable.
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China: a drama that may not bring a crisis

China’s government has set its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target this year at 7.5%, but various signals, such as a declining property market and concerns over an overheating economy, indicate that the world’s second largest economy is in some trouble and heading for a possible hard landing. But there are other positive perspectives too. And if 7.5% growth is seen to be a modest, sustainable figure, compared with the double-digit growth of the previous years, how will and how can Beijing avoid a serious downturn and meet its targets for the future?

The big question in the middle of 2014 is not whether the Chinese economy is in the midst of a downturn, as officials, bankers and analysts acknowledge that a clear slowdown is taking place; the issue is how serious the slowdown will be and what reform measures Beijing will take to keep the economy on track.

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