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WorldApril 1 2015

Saudi banks defy oil pressure to stay on growth path

The impact of low oil prices on Saudi Arabia's banks in 2014 was negligible, as they posted stellar figures. And the sector looks to be in a good position to continue to thrive, says James King, a testimony to its prudent management.
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Saudi banks defy oil pressure to stay on growth path

As the full-year 2014 performance figures for Saudi banks emerged in late January, the underlying strength of the sector was made clear. Most had registered stellar growth figures across their business lines, despite a precipitous six-month slide in oil prices and the attendant concerns over the country’s economic growth prospects. Today, the Saudi banking sector is rightly viewed as one of the strongest and most profitable anywhere in the world. In part, this ongoing success story has been driven by the healthy levels of government spending and longer term economic growth.

However, the figures also reflect the prudent banking culture that exists in the country. Most Saudi lenders have kept focus on core commercial banking, eschewing risky and complex products, as well as overly ambitious expansion plans. The central bank, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), has also played its part in navigating the country’s financial system through the challenges of the global financial crisis and remains widely respected by banking sector participants.

Positive momentum

As such the Saudi Arabian banking sector as a whole has maintained its positive momentum over the past year. Total private sector credit growth increased by 11.9% to hit SR1200bn ($319.96bn), while annual deposit growth also reached double digit figures at 12.4%, or SR1580bn, according to data from the country's largest lender, National Commercial Bank (NCB). Meanwhile, net profits for the sector in 2014 grew 10.22% year on year. In aggregate terms, the profitability of Saudi banks made up SR42bn out of SR115bn for the whole stock market. Unsurprisingly, confidence is high among the banking community, with most looking to develop their market position in 2015.

"When I look at the opportunities in Saudi Arabia, they are enormous," says David Dew, managing director of the Saudi British Bank. "The country is enjoying steady growth free from excessive volatility. Encouragingly, I think this type of growth trajectory is sustainable over the longer term. All of our businesses performed well in 2014 and built on a track record of growth that we have sustained over a number of years."  

A number of changes to the sector have also occurred in recent months, in the form of regulatory initiatives, as well as the initial public offering (IPO) of a 25% stake in NCB. Valued at $6bn, the NCB IPO was the second largest globally in 2014, surpassed only by the mega-lists of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holdings. The country’s sovereign Public Investment Fund decided to float 15% for retail investors with a further 10% designated for the national pension fund.

The transaction was oversubscribed by a factor of 12, attracting SR311bn-worth of bids for 300 million shares valued at SR45 each. The offering was also a source of contention among a number of sharia scholars in the country who claimed that too much of the lender’s business was non-Islamic. At present, NCB operates as a mixed bank with both conventional and sharia-compliant services. However, it is continuing with its transition towards becoming a fully Islamic lender.

"There was some confusion from certain scholars in Saudi Arabia over NCB's transition to becoming a fully sharia-compliant lender during the IPO," says Dr Said Al Shaikh, senior vice-president and chief economist of NCB. "The bank's sharia board has approved its Islamic credentials as it executes this transition and we have developed a strong suite of sharia-compliant products for both the retail and corporate sectors.” 

Saudi banks statistics

Regulatory challenges

Beyond the IPO, a number of regulatory changes were imposed on Saudi Arabian lenders in 2014. In particular, SAMA maintained its commitment to consumer finance regulation in order to increase transparency and fairness for customers in the country. In late 2014, a new directive on consumer financing was issued, whereby fees, costs and administrative charges imposed on consumers may not exceed either SR5000 or 1% of the financing amount, depending on which amount is lower.

Under the same regulation, SAMA also provided itself with the discretionary power to cap retail lending at specific banks. This directive is expected to hit a small number of Saudi lenders relatively hard. In particular, banks with a significant share of the market’s retail space, including Al Rajhi and NCB, may face a period of near-term adjustment as their retail loan income declines.

"In the past couple of years there has been added emphasis on consumer regulation," says Mr Dew. "It is all about transparency, disclosure and treating customers fairly. We fully support that. We believe we are highly compliant and we think it supports our business model.”  

In addition, in November 2014, a new mortgage law came into force as part of a wider and ongoing package of reforms in the real estate sector. A provision of the new regulations is that a loan-to-value (LTV) cap of 70% has been placed on Saudi banks. This provision has caused a significant short-term decline in the country’s mortgage market and remains a source of concern for most lenders.

Previously, most Saudi banks were operating at an LTV ratio of 90% or higher. Notably, the ratio is ultimately set by SAMA rather than by royal decree. The rationale behind the LTV hike, namely to avoid a repeat of the spectacular real estate market failures witnessed elsewhere in the Middle East, is therefore seen as a byproduct of the central bank’s cautious oversight. As the down payment for a mortgage, now set at 30%, is particularly high, the new regulation is making it difficult for most Saudis to enter the real estate market.

For the banks, mortgage lending has now settled at significantly lower levels. On the ground, most observers believe this LTV ratio will be eased by the end of 2015 once the impact becomes clear.

Outward looking

The next change facing Saudi lenders will be the opening of the country’s stock exchange, the Tadawul, to foreign investors. In August 2014, the country’s Capital Markets Authority (CMA) published detailed participation rules for qualified foreign financial institutions. The opening is expected in the first half of 2015 although the immediate impact, in terms of investment inflows, is likely to be limited as most foreign investors already have a presence through swap trades. Rather, it will help to balance the investment breakdown of the exchange.

"Over time, we do expect a migration from direct, retail investments, which dominate the equities landscape, to institutional investments. The CMA is striving to achieve this. As such, we expect the market's natural growth and this shift from retail to institutional investing to drive developments in the asset management business,” says Tariq Al-Sudairy, managing director and chief executive of Jadwa Investment.

Mr Al-Sudairy also anticipates changes in other areas. "The opening of the Saudi stock exchange to international investors will help in two ways. First, it will raise the bar in terms of corporate governance standards. Second, the increase in institutional investors will help to increase the level of sophistication in the market and to subsequently reduce levels of volatility,” he says.

As things stand, the country's equity capital market is in excellent health, and for the banks in particular, the further liberalisation of the Tadawul is being viewed as a significant opportunity. The number of IPOs in the country is on the rise, while the stock exchange, thanks largely to the NCB offering, led regional exchanges based on capital raised in 2014, according to consultancy EY.

"In terms of IPOs, we expect to see a strong pipeline over the next two to three years. The Saudi capital market remains very healthy. Saudi Fransi Capital has several capital markets mandates that we expect to execute this year,” says Usman Sikander, managing director and head of investment banking at Saudi Fransi Capital.

Investment banking push

In light of these developments, the investment banking arms of Saudi Arabia’s major lenders are now pushing hard to increase their market share. This has come as a number of family businesses are expected to list in the coming months and years. "Investment banking is a relatively small component of our business. We are seen as a good quality corporate bank, with a 6% to 7% market share, and we aim to secure more investment banking off the back of that. This is an area where we see opportunity to grow with our customer base,” says Dr Bernd van Linder, managing director of Saudi Hollandi Bank.

For local investment firms, transitioning family businesses from an engagement with private equity to a listing on the stock exchange is seen as a strong growth area. This is partly driven by the fact that most of these family organisations are now entering their third generation, often viewed as the most unstable, which is bringing questions of sustainability and corporate governance to the fore.

"In terms of investment banking, we certainly expect to see growth. We think more and more privately held companies are considering the next stage of their development by becoming publicly listed,” says Mr Al-Sudairy.

Margin pressures

This broadly positive growth picture for Saudi banks is, however, coloured by some challenges. In particular, pressure on margins remains an issue for most and is driven by low interest rates and the intensely competitive environment. Though the country has only 12 commercial banks, which is a relatively small number for the size of the economy in which they operate, the fight for market share is fierce. 

"The pressure on banks' margins is largely attributable to the fact that we are in a low interest rate environment, due to the Saudi riyal’s peg to the dollar. Yet, competition is also playing a role. The flush of liquidity available in the monetary system is encouraging greater competition between banks which is also putting pressure on margins,” says Mr Al Shaikh.

Nevertheless, as Mr Al Shaikh notes, this margin pressure is likely to ease over the longer term. Expected rationalisation of government expenditure in the coming years will lead to reduced levels of liquidity as banks expand their loans and investment portfolios.

These developments have not emerged at the expense of traditional growth sectors, however, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), as well as the retail sector, remaining a point of focus for most. "We have always been known as a very successful corporate bank. In 2010 we made a strategic decision to focus on building our retail franchise, particularly on home finance. This has proved to be a very successful journey so far, leading to the diversification of our risk profile and established us as a  leading retail products and services provider in our chosen segments," says Mr van Linder.

On the SME front, which has been an ongoing point of focus for Saudi banks, impressive gains are being made. Data from the Saudi Savings and Credit Bank and the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, responsible for disbursing interest-free loans as well as providing credit guarantees for commercial bank loans, showed their constituent loan growth had increased by 10% year on year by the second quarter of 2014.

"For the banking sector, catering to SMEs is not easy. It's difficult to find the appropriate resources and expertise to deal with them and this is a challenge faced by most of the Saudi banks. Nevertheless, we are committed to doing everything we can to improve our capabilities and services to this important sector,” says Mr Dew.

Buoyed by strong government spending, a vibrant economic environment and supportive regulations, the future continues to look bright for Saudi lenders. As the country continues with its programme of social and economic reform, including the liberalisation of the investment environment, the role of the banking sector in supporting these developments will become increasingly important.

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Read more about:  Regulations , Middle East , Saudi Arabia