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ViewpointMay 31 2016

Gina Miller: the UK is stronger and safer in the EU

Gina Miller, the founder of SCMDirect.com and True and Fair Foundation, says that while there are issues that need to be resolved within the EU, the UK will not escape these problems by leaving the union. 
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Gina Miller

Those who have wanted the UK out of Europe since the country joined in 1973 are feeling rather gleeful as they could scarcely have chosen a better time for the upcoming EU referendum.

The UK is riding a wave of economic buoyancy in contrast to gloomy clouds over the eurozone and beyond. The EU has suffered several crises: first Greece, then refugees and now a new Polish government that is joining Hungary’s in trampling on liberal democracy. The Schengen Area of free travel and trade is diminishing as border controls are reintroduced to keep out refugees; in the wake of the Paris and Brussels attacks, fears about terrorism and immigration are increasingly alarming. In these insecure times, the emotional appeal of cutting ties with the EU may seem compelling.

In the world of investing we are used to uncertainty, emotional over-reaction and herd mentalities. We also have no crystal balls but concentrate on the known unknowns, balancing cost, risk and returns and taking a medium- to long-term view. When these principles are applied and are rationally committed to the future of the UK for our children and grandchildren, the benefits of remaining in the EU outweigh the possible risks of leaving.

Bigger picture

I could talk of the global powers urging us to remain, the global risks of terrorism, environmental issues, an unsettling rise of the far-right and nationalistic fervour raising its ugly head in many European countries; it is the UK’s positon as a strong voice at any negotiating table that leads me to believe that leaving would be irresponsible.

The UK's independence is not under threat. We are an independent country within the EU, just as Germany, France and others are, with the same rights as they have. Where the EU has proposed policies we disagree with we have opted out – on the euro, the open borders agreement (Schengen Area) or recent proposals to take enforced quotas of migrants. On issues such as defence, foreign affairs, judicial and police matters and taxation the UK has a veto over policy. But the UK has also benefited from EU policy. In financial services, the EU bodies have been far more proactive in tackling the excesses and anti-consumer practices than national regulators. The EU directives we have been involved with have and will benefit investment and pension consumers across the EU, including the UK. 

The Vote Leave campaign says EU membership is holding the UK back, but the UK economy grew by 2.2% last year. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1%, its lowest for 10 years. It would be great if the eurozone economy were in better shape, as UK exports would be higher. Things might be better if it did not have a German core and a central bank trying to export the resulting deflationary pressures to the rest of the world by driving the euro down.

But Brexit would not remedy this situation. Outside the EU, we would still want to trade with our neighbours in the eurozone, and be affected by any financial turmoil there. The uncertainty resulting from Brexit is likely to cause instability for the UK and all the EU members, both in terms of markets and the domino effect of other member states being pressured by their right-wingers to grant referendums to their citizens. The odds are that the UK out of the EU could result in the end of a United Kingdom, as well as the EU itself. 

Strength in numbers

Whatever the business, economic, financial case, there is no escaping that immigration and the refugee issue is today’s single most important topic in the EU. But Brexit does not insulate the UK from the refugee crisis. A mere 29,024 people sought refuge in the year to September 2015; that is one person fleeing persecution and death for every 22,000 people in the UK, and the evidence is that the majority of these refugees are positively contributing to our workforces and the economy.   

The UK has not signed up for the EU refugee relocation scheme. The 20,000 Syrians who are being resettled in the UK over the next five years are coming from outside the EU. The closest the refugee crisis has come to the UK is Calais, where the UK border is now located thanks to the goodwill of the French government. This is highly likely to change after a Brexit vote as France has indicated it would insist on moving the UK border back to Kent.

Data on migration by country of citizenship shows that of the roughly 5 million net inflow of foreigners to the UK between 1990 and 2014, those from EU countries account for only about one-quarter, and those from the eight accession countries one-tenth, according to the UK Office for National Statistics and Bloomberg Intelligence. Strengthening our borders and tackling immigration is a legitimate question, but leaving the EU is not the answer. Furthermore, in these insecure times where terrorism is one of the biggest global threats, there is great value in EU co-operation when it comes to combating cross-border terrorism.

Where David Cameron, or any future prime minister, does need to be resolute is securing safeguards against the 19 euro members ganging up on the UK and the other eight non-euro countries. I agree with those supporting an ‘out’ vote that the eurozone moving towards a political union is undesirable but there is no appetite or support for closer integration so a eurozone government is unlikely, which makes the UK's position as a non-euro member of the EU much more comfortable.

We are stronger, safer and better off in Europe than we would be out on our own. As individuals and business people we know no partnership is perfect. Which is why we always need to argue for reform, now, tomorrow and into the future, just as prime ministers in the past – such as Harold Wilson, Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair – have. Leaving Europe would risk our prosperity, threaten our safety and diminish our influence in the world.

I believe we have no choice but to remain and reform from within.  

Gina Miller is the founder of investment management company SCMDirect.com and charity the True and Fair Foundation.

Top 10 reasons why being in the EU benefits the UK

Facts and figures are important and must be part of voters’ decision-making process, as this referendum must be about heads and hearts together. The top 10 facts are:

1. The benefits of Europe are worth £3000 ($4343) each year to the average household, due to lower prices, trade and investment. (Source: CBI, ‘Our Global Future’, November 2013.)

2. As part of Europe, UK businesses have free access to sell to 508 million consumers.

3. Independent sources, such as the UK Treasury and CEBR, estimate 3 million to 4 million jobs in the UK are linked to trade with the rest of Europe.

4. Some 44% of the UK’s exports are to EU countries, compared with just 15% of EU exports to the UK. (Source: Office of National Statistics.)

5. There are nearly 200,000 UK businesses that trade goods with the EU. (Source: HMRC.)

6. The EU is the largest source of investment to the UK, worth £66m per day, bringing new jobs and higher wages to the UK. (Source: Office of National Statistics.)

7. The average person in the UK saves about £450 every year because trading with the EU drives down the price of goods and services. (Source: European Commission.)

8. The cost of flights has come down 40% because the EU forced competition in the market allowing low-cost airlines such as easyJet to set up. (Source: European Commission.)

9. Consumers now save 73p for every £1 they used to spend on their mobile abroad, and 'roaming charges' will be scrapped entirely by 2017. (Source: FCO.)

10. The European Arrest Warrant has led to more than 1100 suspected criminals being arrested and returned to the UK to face justice. The UK has also sent 7400 suspected criminals who had fled to our country back to the EU. (Source: National Crime Agency.)

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