Powerful forces of change sweeping through the industry

The Banker magazine has been recording change for 80 years and so our journalists (even though none of us dates back quite that far) are well used to, if not a little blasé about, the phenomenon.

Old foes eschew nationalism in south-east Europe banking deal

National Bank of Greece’s purchase of Turkey’s Finansbank, and other cross-border deals, counter continent’s protectionism adherents.

A Fund in search of a raison d’être

With the global balance of economic power shifting, the role the IMF should play is increasingly uncertain.

Salvation for global imbalances

Jean-Philippe Cotis asks which kinds of reforms in Europe and Japan would help to reduce the US’s gaping external deficit.

Africa’s growth drive is key to prosperity

African governments and institutions are becoming increasingly professional, underpinned by an understanding of what is required to thrive in a globalised marketplace, says Patrick Cescau.

MAIN NEWS:China Construction Bank denies tie to Bear Stearns

Although denied by China Construction Bank (CCB), there is talk of the Chinese bank being in preliminary discussions with US securities firm Bear Stearns to acquire a minority stake in the Wall Street resident.

Taking each game as it comes

Bill Nuti, CEO NCR

The Banker met NCR’s new CEO Bill Nuti at this year’s user conference for the 132-year-old system vendor.

Moldovan banking system continues to grow assets

Moldova is a land-locked country of about 4.2 million people. Gross domestic product (GDP) for 2004 was about 32bn lei ($2.6bn), a growth of 7.3% in real terms over 2003. Major contributors to real GDP growth were agriculture (3.4%), services (2.6%) and manufacturing (0.9%).

IIF REPORT: Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies

Total net private capital flows to emerging markets are expected to reach $357bn this year, down from the record $400bn posted in 2005 but still the second highest ever recorded.

Expansionist where others fear to tread

Raiffeisen International chairman and CEO Herbert Stepic talks to Karina Robinson about how to achieve an 83% increase in profits.

Keeping up with the Goldmans

Goldman Sachs has morphed from old-school investment bank to modern investment and trading house with huge earnings growth and, despite heavy criticism for opaqueness, where it goes, others are bound to follow. Geraldine Lambe reports.

Good results are not always good news. At least, they do not always generate good news. Goldman Sachs’ Q1 results blew away every prediction. Earnings were up 62% on the same quarter in 2005; there was massive growth in just about every area of its business, but it was in the triple digits for fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC, 102%), debt underwriting (129%) and equities trading (167%).

Trader with rogues, or force for progress?

China is chasing energy and mineral resources in Africa, attracting criticism for its apparent willingness to deal with ‘despotic’ regimes. James Eedes examines whether this deepening relationship will prove a saviour or curse for the continent.

Peter Goettler Joe McGrath Rick Van Zijl

Peter Goettler

Barclays Capital’s head of debt capital markets and investment banking, Americas, as well as the co-heads of leveraged finance, Americas, tell Geraldine Lambe how they plan to capture market share from the incumbent US heavyweights.

Tapping the Asian market

Horst Seissinger, KfW

With most central bank reserves globally now held in Asia, demand for AAA unsecured bonds, covered bonds and even residential mortgage-backed securities will likely increase. Michael Marray looks at the opportunities for European borrowers.

A new standard for eastern Europe

From left to right: Shyam Parekh, John Travis, Gergely Voros

By using a convertible hybrid structure the Morgan Stanley team were able to solve the privatisation predicament of Hungarian hydrocarbons company MOL. Edward Russell-Walling finds out how they did it.

BNPP pulls off last-minute switch

Martine Billeaud: UK investors are used to dealing with perpetual bonds, without a step-up

To finance its acquisition of Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, BNP Paribas raised two tranches of Tier 1 capital, switching one from the dollar market to sterling in a wise move. By Edward Russell-Walling.

For those who doubted that European cross-border bank consolidation could happen any time soon, BNP Paribas is the latest to test their non-belief.

Watch out for risk in emerging markets

Emerging markets may be entering a new paradigm but that does not mean that financial risk has been eliminated. Remember the tech boom and crash? The internet changed the way business operates forever but analysts and investors still displayed their traditional over-exuberance in a rising market.

The right formula for Colombia

Colombia is one such country that has used the current benign conditions to improve public finances but that does not mean that all the pieces of an economic growth formula are in place. The country has the same pitiful loans to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 25% that it had in the 1970s.

Painting a new landscape

Simon Maisey: early days for trading volumes

Electronic trading of over-the-counter derivatives is just beginning and is expected to boost volumes considerably in the future, driven by both the buy-side and the sell-side. Natasha De Teran reports on developments in the way OTC business is being done.

US exchanges knock on China’s open door

US exchanges are taking advantage of improving relations with China and clinching significant business deals. Jim Kharouf reports.

Time to replace talk with action

Implementation advice is coming from all quarters and there are still voices of dissent but organisations must now get on with their preparations for compliance with MiFID, says Michael Imeson. He finds out how the investment services industry is faring.

Eyes on the IT horizon

Organisations that have to make IT changes to comply with MiFID can use the opportunity to go beyond their obligations with a more imaginative approach that will give them a competitive advantage, says John Neasham.

Instruments of success

Five key areas must be addressed early in any MiFID compliance programme, says Nikki Lovejoy, and getting them right will ensure the right level of management support and investment.

No time like the present

Whatever the prospects of deferment of MiFID transposition dates, for the moment they stand. This means firms must develop their implementation strategy and, where possible, start the process, says Anthony Belchambers.

The left-right march to revival

The prospect of four years of political stability has helped lift the pessimism that has surrounded Portugal’s economy. Peter Wise explains.

Structural transformation

Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, Portugal’s finance minister, tells Peter Wise of his radical public sector reform plans.

Competition heightens

Paulo Teixeira Pinto, chief executive of Millennium BCP

Millennium BCP’s bid for Banco BPI will make competition in the banking sector even more fierce, even if it fails. Peter Wise reports.

Freeing up corporate debt

Peter Wise reports on the new laws billed to overcome impediments to investing in Portugal’s debt market.

Homing in on the consumer

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: the PM’s government is planning to sell the big three state banks

With interest rates falling, Turkey’s banks have moved away from financing of government debt to providing loans and mortgages. Metin Demirsar reports.

Turkey’s banking system is growing rapidly due to cross-border transactions and a buoyant economy. Banks are shifting funds from government securities to loans, as interest rates fall, and competition is intensifying in consumer banking and housing finance.

Major league FDI recipient

Privatisation is sucking in unprecedented levels of foreign direct investment to Turkey. Metin Demirsar reports.

Deal augurs new era for Greeks in Turkey

The deal struck between National Bank of Greece to buy Turkey’s Finansbank is likely to be the first in a line of cross-border acquisitions. Kerin Hope reports.

Europe’s banks vote with their feet for Ukraine

Before Ukraine has settled into its new government, the big banks of Europe have already decided that they want a presence in the country. James Hydzik reports on the growing acquisitions activity.

Moment of truth

Despite significant structural change over the past five years, Romania faces daunting macroeconomic challenges as it gears up for EU membership. Nick Spiro explains.

NBR puts reins on lending

Nicolae Danila, BCR chief executive

As Romania’s banks cash in on the surge in consumer borrowing, the central bank, concerned about a rising current account deficit, is placing stringent curbs on foreign currency lending. The measures are proving highly controversial.

Capital gains

After a bear market and fund scandals, The Bucharest Stock Exchange’s market capitalisation is in the ascendancy. But more privatisation is necessary if the gains are to be consolidated. Nick Spiro explains.

Strong medicine has side-effects

Romania’s central bank is not the only one in the region that is trying to curb the strong demand for foreign-currency loans. Yet the effectiveness and appropriateness of the restrictions are questionable.

Unbridled by uncertainty

Thailand’s banks are riding out the political uncertainty left by the departure of prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Simon Montlake reports from Bangkok.

On the brink of disaster?

A crisis lies in waiting for Mexico in the shape of its frontrunning presidential candidate. Karina Robinson reports from Mexico City on the likely risk scenarios.

Profitability and lending boom under threat

Marcos Martínez: banking association head

Karina Robinson canvasses the CEOs of four of Mexico’s top five banks as the country looks increasingly set to elect a less banker-friendly president.

Shopping abroad for Arab liquidity

More confident Lebanese banks have been moving into regional markets, helping to win another ratings upgrade, write Jon Marks and Eleanor Gillespie.

Project finance needs grow

A new generation of mega-projects is creating huge opportunities for local and ‘suitcase’ bankers, writes Jon Marks in Riyadh.

Chinks of light amid the chaos

Kenya’s politics are as turbulent as ever. Despite this, the private sector, and banks in particular, are doing well. James Eedes reports from Nairobi.

Tanzania sets a small example

James Eedes reports from Dar es Salaam on the factors fuelling Tanzania’s recent vigorous growth.

Prudent powermonger

Does Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni’s ballot victory in a contested election forebode a creeping reversal of Uganda’s progress or is he still the best man for the job? James Eedes reports.

Reasons to be cheerful

Were it not for the genocide, Rwanda would barely register. Small, landlocked and poor, the country’s prospects have never been good. But in Kigali, James Eedes finds some cause for optimism.

Fortis casts its net far and wide

Jean-Paul Votron, Fortis CEO

Fortis chief executive Jean-Paul Votron tells Stephen Timewell how the bank is extending its reach through acquisitions, joint ventures and white-labelling – and plans to grow a global footprint.

Jim Krause

Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s CIO is constantly monitoring the support technology of the US’s biggest futures exchange. The tech function has to cope with growing trading volumes and is also seen as a route to expansion. Dan Barnes reports.

Spreadsheet risk

Spreadsheets are vital tools for traders and banks’ back-office staff but their flexibility can weaken governance. Dan Barnes looks at the problems and the potential solutions.

PayPal is a hard act to follow

Banks’ risk-avoiding trait of being lemmings not leaders has left the payments arena wide open for PayPal to build up its $27.5bn business. It seems unlikely that the banks will be able to catch up.By Chris Skinner.

Integrated business design

In light of lagging customer satisfaction and growing competition within and from outside the financial services industry, banks can hardly afford to stand still.

An age old problem

Bankers in the EU now have to beware of how they treat ‘old codgers’ and ‘young whippersnappers’ because of new age discrimination laws in the European Employment Directive. But no matter how careful they are, more litigation is likely, writes Michael Imeson.

Time for true transformation

Are banks transforming or just transacting? Britta Schnittspahn of BearingPoint, the management and technology consultants, examines the need for financial institutions to change their IT systems’ focus from transactional efficiency to customer management.

Economies of scale

M&A considerations, namely cutting costs, are becoming a major driver for core system replacement. Heather McKenzie explains.

Competitive advantage

Of all the reasons for replacing core systems, the fact the competition are doing it is the most likely precursor to overcoming board level resistance and unlocking budgets. Martin Whybrow explains.

In-flight maintenance

Updating a core system has been likened to fixing an aeroplane’s engine in mid-flight. Competition, regulation and the inflexibility of legacy systems are major obstacles, each of which require investment in time and infrastructure to overcome. Wendy Atkins explains.

Small and holistic

It is not only top-tier banks that can take a truly holistic approach to core banking. Mid-size US bank Bremer can teach something to the behemoths, says Joshua Weinberger.

The right set of goals

Top-tier banks must modernise their core banking systems if they are to see off non-retail competitors that are positioning themselves to appeal to customers on cost alone. Britta Schnittspahn of BearingPoint Germany explains.

Tolerable profits

UAE banks should see earnings rise in 2006 but the gravy train of triple-digit profit growth built on absurdly oversubscribed flotations appears to be ending. Richard Dean reports from Dubai.

Down but not out

A sharp correction in UAE stock markets is unlikely to deal a fatal blow to Dubai’s ambitions as a financial centre.

A flying start

Morgan Stanley’s managing director in the UAE, Georges Makhoul, tells Richard Dean how the bank has thrived since it opened for business in Dubai last year.

Private investigations

The Middle East private equity industry doubled in size in 2005, as more Gulf investors woke up to the potential for 25% annual returns.

Pernickety investors

Boom time in the Middle East does not translate into an easy ride for fund managers, says Nick Kochan.

Gateway to the future

After a rocky start, the Dubai International Financial Centre appears to have reached critical mass.

Islamic journey

Farhan Bokhari reports on the push for the expansion of shariah-compliant Arab Islamic money outside the Middle Eastern region.