Moody's has revised down real GDP projections for 2022 and 2023.

Moody’s Investors Service has revised down the growth forecasts for G20 economies in 2022 and 2023, as the economic outlook worsens due to global financial conditions and commodity price shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The real gross domestic product forecasts for 2022 and 2023 have been cut from 3.1% and 2.9% to 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. For G20 advanced economies, Moody’s forecasts growth of 2.1% in 2022 and 1.1% in 2023. For G20 emerging market economies, Moody’s expects growth of 3.3% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023.

The revised projections come as the war in Ukraine continues to darken the macroeconomic outlook, with a recession in the eurozone very likely.

“Global monetary and financial conditions will remain fairly restrictive through 2023,” said Moody’s senior vice-resident Madhavi Bokil in a report. “Central banks will require decisive proof that high inflation no longer poses a threat to their policy objectives before letting up on their tight monetary stance. The challenging global economic environment of today will be resolved with a sharp and disinflationary slowdown in economic growth.”


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