Even before the dust has settled after the biggest banking blow up in 80 years, the first signs of what a post-crisis world will look like are starting to emerge. The winners in banking will be those that recognise the changes first and work out to how to position themselves correctly.

The first big change is that internationalism is back in vogue. Ironically, the post-Berlin Wall world resulted in unprecedented economic globalisation alongside the last gasps of American exceptionalism.

The apparent triumph of US-style capitalism over all other forms persuaded American governments that it was sensible to opt out of, or emasculate, international conventions on climate change, human rights and trade. This approach is now being rethought and will continue regardless of who occupies the White House in 2009.

For some considerable time it has been clear that the role of the Bretton Woods institutions, the IMF and the World Bank, needed rethinking as well as the imbalance within them between the traditional power brokers – the US and Europe – and the heavyweight emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil.

Early warning system

The IMF has been scratching around for something serious to do and now new mandates are being proposed, such as a cross-border financial system supervisor to act as an early warning system for the global economy. In the new fervour for international agreement – following the successful co-operation over the European bail-out – unblocking the stalled World Trade ­Organization talks has also been proposed.

New initiatives in these areas will create banking business as trade flows more smoothly and climate change is taken more seriously.

The key, however, will be limiting US involvement to that of ‘equal partner’ and ensuring that China has a similar status – ­successful international co-operation can only occur with both involved.

As the spirit of internationalism resumes, predictions of the early demise of US-style capitalism have been much overstated. After all, this is the part of the American dream that countries as different as China and Russia have partially adopted, as opposed to the US political model which they have largely spurned. But there will be new regulations that, as well as restricting business, will create new opportunities.

Transfer to exchanges

Huge over-the-counter markets, such as the $62,000bn market for credit derivatives, will transfer to exchanges with central counterparties – several players are already lining themselves up for this work. Credit rating agencies will be restricted from working for both issuer and investors at the same time and this will allow new competitors to break the domination of the sector by three firms.

Other changes in the regulatory environment may occur inadvertently rather than by design. Even though Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have become commercial banks, they are not being forced to sell their non-financial assets, such as power stations and oil tankers. The outcome maybe that the commercial banks embrace this new landscape rather than obliging Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to restrict their activities.

New economic shape

Then there will be opportunities arising from the new economic shape of the world rather than its new regulatory shape. Second­-tier banks with capital will play more prominently in syndicated loans and other markets from which the former giants have retired hurt.

Risk premiums are back and some standard investments that during the boom were paying too little to count will now be back in favour. Restructuring advice and the financial institutions groups of banks will also find customers. Covered bonds will be favoured over securitisation.

On top of this there will be post-crisis business in raising money for indebted sovereigns and municipalities (such as those in the UK that lost their cash in Icelandic banks) and a huge workload from the reprivatising of nationalised banks.

If it seems quiet just at the moment, be thankful for the lull – a heap of business is piling up outside and will eventually break the door down.

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