Major progress has been achieved in the reconciliation between the US and its old adversaries, Cuba and Iran. But there are many hurdles to be overcome before normal relations are restored.
In recent months, two diplomatic breakthroughs have seen both Cuba and Iran begin a slow process of rapprochement with the US-led global order. In both cases, a deal was reached after lengthy and contested negotiations. The signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, by six world powers and Iran, sealed the Iranian nuclear accord, while the more symbolic gesture of respective national flags flying from embassies in Havana and Washington, DC, points to the success of restored US-Cuba relations. On the face of it, substantial progress has been achieved.
But there is a long road ahead before the full normalisation of political and commercial ties occurs. In the case of Iran, the US trade embargo remains in place, while Congress is bitterly divided. Moreover, a number of technical hurdles have to be overcome before the UN energy watchdog signs off on Iran’s co-operation with the world. As this unfolds, political hardliners in the US and Tehran are still agitating to derail an agreement which, in many ways, threatens their longer term political agendas.
Cuba, too, is still subject to a US trade embargo. Similarly, Guantanamo Bay has yet to be closed, and is a long way off being returned to Cuban sovereignty. Here, much will depend on the outcome of the next US presidential elections, as well as the 2016 congressional elections. In addition, the Cuban government’s work towards economic and political liberalisation, human rights and the rule of law will play a key role in the outlook for normalised relations.
Nevertheless, there is an air of inevitability about this dual reconciliation. Tired political dogmas and notions of national security are being swept aside by more commercial interests in an age of low growth and austerity. In this respect, Cuba and Iran offer quite distinct business and political prospects. While rapprochement with Cuba may ultimately lead to improved US-Latin America relations, in turn offering indirect benefits in terms of regional development and co-operation, Iran is an altogether different prospect.
With a population of close to 80 million, and abundant natural resources, Iran’s inclusion in the global order will come with seismic political and economic implications. For one, the World Bank expects that the price of oil will fall by about 14%, or $10 a barrel, once Iran begins to export an additional 1 million barrels per day inside the next 12 months. As money and expertise pour in from both East and West, the weight of regional influence is likely to shift decisively to Iran’s favour. Only time will tell what this means for the established order of the Middle East, as well as the wider world.
