China could benefit if the US makes good on its threat to pull out of Trans-Pacific Partnership by strengthening its standing in the Asia-Pacific region. But neighbours trading with the giant could risk ceding political power. 

“We cannot continue to allow China to rape our country… it’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.”

This statement has become the symbol of president-elect Donald Trump’s views on US-China trade policy. Some feared these comments could dent bilateral relations, but Chinese president Xi Jinping’s and Mr Trump’s phone call soon after his victory suggests the two countries are open to working together in what will likely be a very transactional rapport.

As the biggest supplier of imports to the US, China will be hit if Mr Trump slaps 45% tariffs on its goods, as promised during his election campaign. And although Asia hosts some of the fastest growing economies worldwide, they could not replace the consumer market and technology offered by the US today.

But Mr Trump’s isolationist policies could, in some cases, play in China’s favour. As he pulls away from the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Asian economy could solidify its role as the key power in Asia-Pacific, building on existing China-led initiatives such as the One Belt One Road.

It is fair to say, however, that China would not entirely replace the US in the region. Economically, the opportunity is attractive. And countries in Asia are largely keen to collaborate with China. But stepping into the US's shoes on a security level could be too costly, both politically and financially. China will likely use a potential US retreat to push select security agendas on its own terms, such as the South China Sea question.

China could even help support a policy at the heart of Mr Trump’s campaign: building US infrastructure. The US will face a $1440bn infrastructure financing gap between 2016 and 2025, and it cannot raise this money alone.

On the climate front, if the US does withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, as suggested by Mr Trump, China might become a new voice of authority in global climate negotiations – an unthinkable scenario until recently.

The president-elect’s “rape” comment is no longer making headlines and Mr Trump’s campaign trash-talk has not annihilated US-China relations. But although pragmatism often prevails in business, his inflammatory comments are exactly what a country such as China never really forgets.

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