In The Banker’s May 2004 cover story, we posed the question: what should Deutsche Bank do next?
Six months and a management shake-up later, things are no clearer. Josef Ackermann, the Swiss chief executive who rarely talks to the press, has returned from the wars (he was acquitted in the Mannesmann trial) only to find himself presiding over another war: that between Deutsche’s investment bankers with their international view and the German non-bankers on the supervisory board with their domestic view.
Releasing itself from the confines of the German market was the smartest move Deutsche ever made. It allowed the bank to become a big league investment banking player and a leader in the bond markets. But times change, and these days the importance of retail distribution is as much on the radar as star hires and clever derivatives. Deutsche is making a ton of money out of its proprietary trading, but for sure, the markets will change at some point and this strategy come under scrutiny. Then the business becomes selling products to customers – and Deutsche, with a meagre 7% of the German retail market,doesn't have many.
Suddenly, the failure to buy Postbank, with its 11% market share, takes on greater importance and the investment bankers are firmly on-side that this venture is still worth pursuing. Strange that in the glamourous world of investment banking, the future of a major player depends on getting hold of grandma’s post office savings account.
The other industry trend being emulated by Deutsche is the rise of the co-head. No-one, it seems, is allowed to be completely in charge these days. Or is it a technique for making more room at the top so that top bankers don’t defect?
