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AmericasJuly 1 2015

Argentina continues to walk a default tightrope

It is becoming less and less likely that Argentina will resolve its dispute with international investors over its 2002 default before its presidential election in October. The question is, will the country drift further apart from the international investor community, or will the next government bring about the structural reforms markets are impatient to see?
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Argentina continues to walk a default tightrope

By now, investors had expected that Argentina would have settled its long-running dispute with the hedge funds that had refused the sovereign’s debt restructuring terms following its 2002 default. When, in mid-2014, a US district court upheld a previous ruling siding with the funds, analysts forecast that president Cristina Fernandez’s administration would resolve the matter before the country's October 2015 general elections, and before payment on a dollar bond was due in the same month.

Argentina – according to its own official statements – is running out of foreign reserves and, officially at least, continues to be cut off from international markets. Yet, a settlement has still not materialised. Far from it, in fact. The country is being accused of favouring disingenuous schemes over international negotiation, and its already stagnant economy is at risk of being engulfed by further waves of litigation.

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Silvia Pavoni is editor in chief of The Banker. Silvia also serves as an advisory board member for the Women of the Future Programme and for the European Risk Management Council, and is part of the London council of non-profit WILL, Women in Leadership in Latin America. In 2019, she was awarded an honorary fellowship by City University of London.
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