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AmericasNovember 1 2018

Rescuing Argentina: will the rope snap after IMF bailout?

Argentina’s currency crisis has triggered an IMF bailout, which the government believes will spark a recovery. Those who recall the IMF’s last intervention, before the 2001 default, less favourably will be hoping the government is right, especially with an election in the offing. Silvia Pavoni reports.
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Argentina’s record-breaking numbers are hard to take in, including, as they do, a $57bn bailout package, the largest ever handed out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); a 60% benchmark interest rate, the highest in the world; and a planned fiscal adjustment of nearly 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in just over two years, the steepest in the country's recent history.

Experts warn, however, that the depth of the country’s troubles, as well as the bitter remedy prescribed by the IMF, will be felt sharply by Argentines well into next year. And as voters will choose their next president in October 2019, there is a risk that the country will take a step back towards the protectionist leadership of the past.

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Silvia Pavoni is editor in chief of The Banker. Silvia also serves as an advisory board member for the Women of the Future Programme and for the European Risk Management Council, and is part of the London council of non-profit WILL, Women in Leadership in Latin America. In 2019, she was awarded an honorary fellowship by City University of London.
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