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Investment bankingNovember 3 2008

Right place, wrong time

Just as the banking industry’s big names turned their attention towards Guatemala, the credit crisis struck, plunging the country’s modernisation plans into jeopardy. Writer John Rumsey.
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Guatemala’s economy had been humming along nicely, if not spectacularly, for the past few years of its post-civil war recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating from 2.6% in 2005 to an expected 5.6% this year. The country has been diversifying slowly away from agriculture, which still accounts for 50% of its economy, into service industries, such as call centres, business process outsourcing and tourism.

Recently, Guatemala has been realising a host of new and lucrative opportunities that could substantially increase foreign investment and GDP, says Mario Marroquin, head of the country’s investment bureau Invest in Guatemala. These include a large acceleration in mining for nickel and gold; the exploitation of oil and gas deposits found in the Pacific coast straddling the border with El Salvador; the development of alternative energies; and infrastructure. The expansion plans of Goldcorp in its Marlin silver mine will require a $4bn investment alone.

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