Conrad Enill, the Trinidad and Tobago finance minister, sides with other top officials in Prime Minister Patrick Manning’s government when it comes to talking bullishly about the nation’s economy. “Based on the current situation, we can see a predictable revenue stream until at least 2020, with a good part of that income anchored to natural gas,” Mr Enill tells The Banker, while sitting in the ministry’s spacious penthouse boardroom overlooking the Port of Spain waterfront.
Keeping a close watch on energy-related income is not all that fills his day. Mr Enill is steering one of the western hemisphere’s fastest growing economies, which is expected to expand by 6.5% this year, up from 5.7% in 2004. Growth is forecast to reach nearly 8% in 2006.
Record budget
Mr Enill is studying a national budget that tops a record 30bn for the fiscal year 2004-2005, while minding public pressures to see visible results from strong growth and the full-to-bursting government purse. “We expect that the gains made in the energy sector will continue to feed through to the more broad-based service and retail sectors,” he explains. At the same time, he must assure investors and foreign policy watchers that Trinidad and Tobago is managing the booming economy with sufficient caution.
Spend an hour with the finance minister and you leave feeling that he is certainly up to the job. Sturdy and with a firm stare, Mr Enill responds to questions with conviction and clarity. He is no stranger to pressure, having served as the first chairman of the G24 coalition of developing and emerging market countries. In that position, Mr Enill was forced to challenge some of the extreme demands placed on poorer countries by the G8 industrialised nations and the International Monetary Fund, while also striking a tone that did not scare off foreign investors or fuel market jitters.
But significant tests await at home. The revenue stabilisation fund, for example, is a tricky issue. Later this year, lawmakers will debate exactly how the fund should be tapped and which agencies will get priority. Considering how rarely the ruling People’s National Movement and the opposition United National Congress agree these days, the discussion is expected to become heated.
“Many of the rules are already set,” says Mr Enill. “In general, we know that if your revenue is reduced by about 10%, that will trigger the stabilisation fund. Of course, the other option is to stay away from the fund and reduce spending instead. In any case, we still need to determine the structure for fund withdrawals.”
High oil and gas prices
During the 2004-2005 budget presentation, government officials repeated their pledge to put all earnings exceeding original budget amounts into the stabilisation fund. But with prices for oil and natural gas still high, some argue that the fund is large enough for even the rainiest day and believe that excess revenue should go toward social spending, namely education and healthcare. Or that perhaps extra tax revenue should go into the public sector investment programme, which centres on upgrading local infrastructure.
In the meantime, Mr Enill is, like his government colleagues, anxious to talk up Trinidad and Tobago’s campaign to be selected as the headquarters for the proposed Free Trade Agreement of the Americas, an ambitious hemispheric-wide trade initiative.
“New government offices are already being built along the waterfront here,” Mr Enill says, pointing toward the port’s edge. “There are also major new hotels in the works. Basically, what you’ll see over the next 24 months is a drastic change in the Port of Spain skyline. This is all geared toward creating an environment that will allow Trinidad and Tobago to become a global player.”
