Europe is in the throes of disruptive change that will significantly alter the balance of power between the European Union and Russia over the next 10 years, with Ukraine at the heart of the transformation. As a former member of the Soviet Union with ties to Russia that go back centuries, Ukraine’s peaceful transition to democracy and aspirations to the EU present a significant challenge to Russia.
If Ukraine joins the EU, it will not only signal that Russia’s grip on it has finally loosened, but will prompt a reappraisal of Russia’s own relationship with Europe and lay the groundwork for Russia itself to join the EU within 15 years.