The deaths of Kuwait’s Emir, Sheikh Jaber al-Ahmad al-Sabah, and Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid, last month highlight important leadership issues in the Gulf region, which not only has the world’s most extensive oil reserves and rapidly expanding financial reserves but also the most combustible political environment.
With the passing of Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd last August and Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Zayed in late 2004, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has lost four key leaders over the past year or so.
Does this loss of decades of experience matter or have Gulf states developed sufficiently sophisticated structures to enable seamless transitions of power?
Some would argue that King Fahd and Sheikh Zayed had been in poor health for many years, and the transition, for example, of Crown Prince Abdullah to ruler in Saudi Arabia represented a well-accepted natural progression. The key point, however, is that the new leadership in the kingdom has not yet moved to a younger generation and it is not clear when and how that will take place.
Ageing leadership
In Kuwait, the Crown Prince Sheikh Saad al-Abdullah al-Sabah, has been appointed emir but he is 76 and also said to be in poor health. While formal family structures are likely to hold sway initially, the ageing leaderships in both Kuwait and the kingdom suggest further significant changes can be expected over the next five years.
With Saudi achieving record oil exports in 2005 of $157bn, and aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) in the GCC states forecast to expand by one third in 2005 and 2006 along with a $360bn growth in foreign assets, the GCC is experiencing exceptional economic performance while undergoing considerable domestic political change.
In Dubai the hugely successful and youthful Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid has taken over from his brother and, given his dual position as United Arab Emirates vice-president, he is expected to bring new vigour and zest to both his roles.
The GCC has the resources, both oil and financial, to craft a new global role for itself as Dubai has done. The critical issue is whether ageing leadership in many places will make way for a new, more vigorous approach.
