Analysing The Banker’s Credit Risk 1000, Geraldine Lambe finds a pessimistic outlook on growth and few signs of a sustainable global recovery in corporate earnings.
This year has been a study in market psychology, as market participants and companies worldwide have attempted to make sense of a troubling and often conflicting mix of circumstances and events. As US non-farm payroll data made doubtful the strength and veracity of the country’s economic recovery, the Federal Reserve moved forcefully into tightening mode. Oil prices have continued their inexorable rise, with oil futures hitting their highest levels ever in August, although at the time of going to press, oil was showing signs of weakening. Driven by concerns about interrupted supplies, the balance of supply and demand, and the pace and durability of China’s economic growth, fears that the rising cost of oil would undermine the current recovery have been instrumental in pushing growth forecasts down.

The Banker meets Turkey’s Kemal Unakitan and finds the minister of finance optimistic and determined to stabilise the economy.

The government has suffered some severe setbacks in its privatisation programme but it has a steely determination to press ahead and has more sell-offs slated for the near future, says Nick Kochan in Ankara.

As Swiss Re attempts to diversify its business, CEO John Coomber tells Karina Robinson why he is taking lessons from the banking industry.

Fabien Buliard looks at how centralised treasury systems have altered relationships between large companies and their banks.

As if remedying Deutsche Bank’s dearth of retail networks outside Germany and its insufficient presence in the US weren’t enough of a challenge, the bank’s CEO is fighting a legal battle to save his career. Karina Robinson reports.

Bankers who think that credit derivatives give them risk protection may find themselves on the wrong end of market mispricing. Natasha de Teran reports.
For some while now the world’s leading banks have been seen as the villains of the credit derivatives (CDs) markets. They parcel up their poorly performing assets, it is claimed, and sell them on to unsuspecting investors. Then, when a credit blows up – Enron, Worldcom, Parmalat – it is the insurance companies and other investors that take the hit and not the banks, complain critics. It is great for the world financial system as bank collapses are avoided. But dreadful for shareholders and buyers of with-profits policies from insurance firms whose returns are ruined.

Is business transformation a realisable aspiration for the banking community or yet more hype? CSC’s Udo Milkau considers the evidence.