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Western EuropeAugust 3 2003

Trichet presidency good for markets

The arrival of Jean-Claude Trichet as president of the European Central Bank (ECB) in October should have a positive impact on financial markets. The euro/dollar relationship will be underpinned by the tacit understanding that ECB intervention will be more wisely undertaken, interest rate policy better explained, and Euribor, the euro interest rate curve, will price less uncertainty over ECB rate policy.
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Mr Trichet takes over from Wim Duisenberg, widely regarded by financial markets as one of the less competent central bankers of modern times. Mr Trichet, by contrast, is held as one of the most able of Europe’s financial market officialdom.

The gaffes that characterised Mr Duisenberg’s presidency will not be repeated under Mr Trichet. The ECB’s headline financial operations will prove to be more orderly – in particular, ECB intervention, when needed, will not give money away to FX dealers. One FX market joke in the late 1990s about Mr Duisenberg highlights the market view:

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