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Analysis & opinionOctober 4 2009

Bent Flyvbjerg

Bent Flyvbjerg, Professor and Academic director, Oxford UniversityEvidence suggests that infrastructural stimulus initiatives often detract from the economy in the long term.
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Bent Flyvbjerg

A year ago, The Economist called current spending on infrastructure the "biggest investment boom in history". Spending was the largest it had ever been as a share of world gross domestic product. The deepening fiscal crisis could have ended the boom, when banks and capital funds began cutting back on lending. But the opposite has happened.

Reductions in funds have been offset by hundreds of billions of dollars for government stimulus spending. Heads of state, led by US president Barack Obama and China premier Wen Jiabao, have singled out investment in infrastructure as a key means to create jobs and keep the economy from slumping. China was first mover when its State Council, in November 2008, passed a $586bn stimulus plan, mainly for investment in infrastructure. In February 2009, the US followed suit, with Congress passing President Obama's $787bn New Deal. India has a $475bn plan, and the UK, Germany, France and other nations are ready with additional billions if the economy worsens.

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