Are global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) running out of steam? In 2019, first-half M&A volumes worldwide were nearly 10% down on those in 2018, as investor sentiment appeared to cool. But the two investment bankers who run M&A at Citi say the outlook is positive, at least in the long term, for several different reasons. Since theirs is one of the industry’s most visible M&A teams – Citi was an adviser on four of the first half’s five biggest takeovers – their views carry some weight.
Global volumes fell from $2362bn in the first half of 2018 to $2160bn in 2019. “This year has seen the third best global start in history,” says Mark Shafir, Citi's New York-based co-head of global M&A. "But it has been a narrow market, heavily skewed to North America, whose share was at a 20-year high.” He notes that while North America is always the biggest M&A region, its dominance has been magnified by double-digit declines in the first half of 2019 in Europe, which fell by 30%, and Asia Pacific, down by 19%.
