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SectionsJanuary 2 2013

India: still solid as a BRIC?

India stands at a crossroads. The country's potential remains huge, but its growth of late has been hampered by political infighting and weak governance, leading some to question if it is still worthy of its 'BRIC' status.
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India: still solid as a BRIC?

India was a slowpoke economy for 30 years after independence, registering a growth rate of barely 3.5% between 1950 and 1980. Things began to improve, albeit slowly, in the 1980s when the growth rate averaged 5%. Following liberalisation measures by the government of Narasimha Rao and Dr Manmohan Singh in 1991, however, the country has taken off. Between 1980 and 2010, the growth rate was 6.5%. In the first decade of the 21st century, as India joined the select club of 'miracle' emerging economies and was put in the exclusive BRIC club with Brazil, Russia and China, gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate averaged 8% for 2007/08 to 2011/2, and inflation was below 5% between 2001 and 2008. There was a spate of books extolling 'the elephant that could gallop', the 'incredible India', 'shining India'.

Now, as would happen in the post-interval half of old Bollywood films, all is gloom and doom. India's growth rate has slipped to 6% and is predicted to slide further while inflation is hovering just under double digits, exceeding the quarterly growth rate for 10 consecutive quarters since 2010. Industrial growth is erratic month on month and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is refusing to relax monetary policy. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA2) government led by Manmohan Singh, which was re-elected in 2009, has faced stormy protests about corruption both in and out of Parliament.

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