The emotional reaction from Robert Albertson, principal and chief strategist at US boutique investment bank Sandler O'Neill and former head of bank research at Goldman Sachs, is typical of many bankers. "Your thesis is too extreme; I know of no time in history when the markets [have not recovered]. What I'm seeing is the beginning of a strong recovery from private equity funds, with at least $150bn of private equity [out there], which with leverage translates into $700bn [looking for investment]," he says, in answer to The Banker's suggestion of a potential 10-year bear market.
The post-Iraq scenario that the majority of banks and commentators envisage involves a modest US-led economic and stock market recovery within the next 18 months. The problem is that the desire for an upturn is being confused with the reality of one.
