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AmericasMarch 1 2019

What are Latin America's prospects for 2019?

The Banker asked a group of economists to share their views on Latin America’s prospects in 2019, as new administrations promise change, Argentina deals with austerity and US-China trade tensions threaten to hit exporters. Silvia Pavoni reports.
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Q: Under Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil is supposed to be becoming a more open market. Will this happen? What are the main obstacles? And how might geopolitics get in the way?

Mario Mesquita: We believe that the new government will follow the strategy of a gradual opening of the Brazilian economy, focusing on the reduction of subsidies, tax breaks and tariffs that proved to be inefficient, especially those aimed at specific sectors rather than the whole economy. This agenda may start moving only in 2020, together with the simplification of the tax system and after the approval of the pivotal pension reform. The main obstacle will be the resistance of the sectors that benefit from government protection, which have a strong [lobbying presence] in society and Congress.

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Silvia Pavoni is editor in chief of The Banker. Silvia also serves as an advisory board member for the Women of the Future Programme and for the European Risk Management Council, and is part of the London council of non-profit WILL, Women in Leadership in Latin America. In 2019, she was awarded an honorary fellowship by City University of London.
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