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CommentDecember 8 2010

A summer of discontent or sign of things to come?

Was the third quarter a blip or a sign of tougher times ahead? The leading names in the capital markets mostly delivered poor results and the seasonal summer lull can only be part of the reason.
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At Goldman Sachs - usually the firm to buck the trend - fixed-income net revenues were 37% lower (comparing third quarter 2010 with third quarter 2009) at $3.8bn while equities revenues were 33% lower at $1.9bn. Other houses reported falls in sales and trading revenues from equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities.

It is difficult not to conclude that wholesale banking has entered a lower returns era unless the legendary inventiveness of its bankers finds a new pot of gold that the regulators either have not noticed or are comfortable with.
The more complex and lucrative structured products have lost their appeal although basic securitisation is making a comeback, as illustrated by Investec's sterling subprime-backed deal and a securitisation done by UK mortgage lender Nationwide - both deals featured in this issue.

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