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CommentDecember 30 2009

Governments may profit yet from economic crisis

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Amid all the politicking about compensation and the scapegoating of banks for the global economic downturn, the general public has probably failed to notice that a lot of taxpayer money used in the bail-outs is flowing back fast - and that it is being repaid with interest.

In the third week of December, Citigroup and Wells Fargo became the last of the US banking behemoths to repay in full the funds received via the Troubled Asset Relief Program last year.

In addition to getting back the principal, the US Treasury has seen a profit from both hefty interest payments and the sale of the warrants that the government demanded in return for the bail-out.

The US government predicts that, on the $245bn it pumped into banks, it will eventually reap more than $19bn profit. It is propping up the real economy which is likely to prove more costly. Support for the automobile industry - which the public found much more palatable - is likely to lose the government about $30bn.

It is not just the US government that is beginning to see a return on crisis investments. The Dutch government has also been repaid €5bn of its €10bn capital injection into ING, along with a handsome dividend of €259m and a one-off early repayment fee of €347m.

The French banks, too, have all repaid their government money, and handed over a total of €631m in interest for the privilege.

In the UK, it may be some time before banks such as the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group are in a fit state to think about exiting government support, but the Bank of England, wholly owned by the UK Treasury, will probably earn more than £4bn this year on the emergency loans doled out to banks and building societies. That is more than four times its previous record profit, set last year.

We are certainly not out of the woods yet, but it could be that government investments may yet turn a profit.

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