After registering its best performance in five years in 2018, Kenya’s economic growth has cooled somewhat in 2019. In its World Economic Outlook for October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.6% for 2019, down from 6.3% in 2018. The lower figure reflects the impact of a regional drought on the country’s agricultural sector, together with the knock-on effect from international trade tensions on emerging economies more generally.
Such growth prospects, however, remain significantly higher than the 3.2% average forecast for sub-Saharan Africa. Despite Kenya’s woes this year, its growth is forecast by the IMF to recover to 6% in 2020, thanks to a well-diversified economy. The country has significant import cover, while both fiscal and current account deficits are reducing.
